Why Chengdu and Houston matter; Trump's impact on the Hong Kong economy revealed
SCMP, 26 Jul 2020
Political economy editors John Carter and Zhou Xin explain the impact of the closure of the Chengdu consulate on US companies, and the deep historical meaning China attaches to the Houston consulate.
Hong Kong desk editor Denise Tsang reveals the ongoing fears of American and Japanese companies about being based in Hong Kong.
Veteran trade lawyer Will Marshall unpacks how his clients and Hong Kong's business community are discovering the ways the Hong Kong Autonomy Act is affecting trade in and out of the Hong Kong SAR. #scmppodcasts
00:05 Finbarr Bermingham introduction
03:16 Denise Tsang on Hong Kong background
04:17 Hong Kong economic outlook
04:48 Sentiment of exporters in Hong Kong after the Hong Kong Autonomy Act
05:16 How tariffs on China now apply to Hong Kong
06:10 Which sectors of Hong Kong are affected
06:40 Hong Kong business community sentiment for what risks can be mitigated
07:36 John Carter on the new Cold War
08:25 Houston consulate the biggest escalation in the trade war, and the theories why Trump would do this
09:16 How can China retaliate, and why the US consulate in Chengdu is important
10:46 Concerns by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong about China's retaliation
12:45 Companies considering moving from Hong Kong, balancing desires to trade with mainland China
15:16 What US delisting Chinese companies from stock markets means, and how Chinese accounting standards differ from US standards
17:00 How Chinese companies are now considering anti-Chinese sentiment in US and now choosing to list elsewhere
18:00 How US/China tensions sandwich Hong Kong in the crossfire
19:35 Upcoming PMI data releases for China and what it portends for the second quarter and exports
21:05 Zhou Xin analysis: the closure the Chinese consulate in Houston
22:05 'A new level of hostilities' - why China is demanding evidence from the US about Houston
22:50 Why China would close the Chengdu consulate
23:52 The Chengdu consulate's special role in China's history, defectors and Hilary Clinton
26:00 The historic symbolism for China's Houston consulate, beginning with the Carter administration
27:50 Will Marshall, expert on trade sanctions, tariffs and controls introduction
28:50 Concerns of trade clients on import controls in Hong Kong and impact on high-tech businesses
30:20 Why 'dual use' technologies covers almost everything being made in the tech space
31:50 How Hong Kong being covered by China's export control categorisation impacts its trade
32:50 Licenses now required for many goods that ship to Hong Kong
35:08 How US sanctions targeting individuals will impact Hong Kong's business community
36:50 How US tariffs on China now impact on Hong Kong
39:50 Will Hong Kong bring a case against the US in the WTO, will China use Hong Kong as a surrogate to challenge the US
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